2014年3月5日水曜日

Even the planned test inevitably adds another element of Cold War-style tension to the current crisis

The Russian military says it has test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, as tension continues over Ukraine's Crimea region. A Topol RS-12M missile was launched from Russia's Kapustin Yar test range near the Caspian Sea to the Sary Shagan range in Kazakhstan, it said. It comes after the US accused Russia of an "act of aggression" in Crimea. The US said it was notified of the launch before it took place, as required by arms treaties.
 
Moscow is in de facto control of the Crimean peninsula after troops thought to be Russian or pro-Russian took control of strategic points in recent days.
 
US Secretary of State John Kerry, visiting the Ukrainian capital Kiev, praised the "restraint" of the new government there, which took power after the overthrow of Russian ally President Viktor Yanukovych last month.
 
Defending his threat to use the Russian military in Ukraine if he felt it necessary, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country was in "chaos" after being seized by "nationalists" and "anti-Semites", and that Russia had a right to protect its citizens there.
 
The Topol was fired at 22:10 (18:10 GMT), the defence ministry in Moscow said, adding: "The aim of the launch was to test a promising intercontinental ballistic missile payload." The nuclear-capable missile reached its target successfully, it said.
 
Tests of the missile, one of Russia's newest, are not unusual but the timing of the launch if confirmed, is likely to alarm observers of the crisis with Ukraine. (BBC NEWS, 2014/3/3)

2014年3月4日火曜日

Currency exchange fluctuations backed to risk-on just only in rumors of the instruction to return to base troops by Russian President

Dollar straight, cross-yen, dollar-yen soared by rumor of the instruction to return to the base troops by Russian President, transmitted at 15:00. EUR/USD rate extremely soared to around $ 1.3765, GBP/USD seems to have become a near $ 1.6667 at that time.

On the other hand, even though March 2 and 3 Russian troops invasion to Crimea, the exchange rate was not moving to the risk off  (weakening EUR and GDP).

If you are looking objectively such a situation, you can read the signal that the western countries and markets (such as the United States, Germany, France, Japan) had accepted implicitly the invasion of Russian troops this time. (TS)


「ロシア大統領、軍事演習中の部隊に基地への帰還を指示」のウワサだけで為替が変動

午後3時とともに「ロシア大統領、軍事演習中の部隊に基地への帰還を指示」との報道(おそらくウ噂)が伝えられとドルストレート、クロス円、ドル円が上伸。ユーロドルが1.3765ドル近辺、ポンドドルが1.6667ドル近辺となったらしい。

このような些細なことで、為替がリスクオン(ユーロ高・ポンド高)に戻ろうとしている。

一方で3月2日から3日にかけて、ロシア軍がクリミア半島に侵攻しても、為替は目立ったリスクオフ(ユーロ安・ポンド安)には動いていない。

このような状況を客観的にみていると、マーケットと西側諸国(アメリカ・ドイツ・フランス・日本など)は、今回のロシア軍の侵攻を暗に容認してた、というシグナルに読める。(TS)

Russia Demands Immediate Surrender Of Ukraine Warships

Russian forces in Crimea demanded Monday evening that the crews of two Ukrainian warships surrender immediately or face an assault on their ships and crew, according to a Ukrainian official.
 
Four Russian navy ships were in position around the Ukrainian ships in Sevastopol's harbor as they awaited a response to the surrender ultimatum, the Associated Press reports. Ukrainian defense sources also told the BBC Russia had set a 03:00 GMT (22:00 EST) deadline for Ukrainians soldiers in Crimea to surrender or be attacked “across Crimea,” but a Ukrainian spokesman could not confirm that order. (TIME, 2014/3/3)

2014年3月3日月曜日

G7 condemns Russia over Ukraine

Soldiers, believed to be Russian, have surrounded Ukrainian military bases in Crimea
Russia's G8 partners have condemned Moscow's military build-up in Ukraine amid fresh diplomatic efforts to avert a dangerous escalation of the crisis.
 
The world's seven major industrialised powers also suspended preparations for the G8 summit in Sochi in June. Meanwhile, European Union foreign ministers are due to meet in emergency session in Brussels.
 
The moves come as Russian military forces continue to strengthen their grip on the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine's interim government has accused Russia of having declared war, and has ordered the mobilisation of its armed forces. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far defied calls from the West to pull back his troops. He insists Russia has a right to protect its interests and those of Russian-speakers in Crimea and elsewhere in Ukraine.
 
The UN said on Sunday that Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson was travelling to Ukraine to be "personally apprised of the facts on the ground". A statement said he would brief UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon "on the next steps the United Nations could take to support the de-escalation of the situation". (BBC NEWS, 2014/3/3)

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